How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting

Using Home Field Advantage to Advance Your Betting

1. How To Find An Edge In Sports Betting
2. How To Do Sports Betting
3. How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Online
4. Sports Betting In Ct
5. How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Line

1. Edge = (.6. 1.833333) – 1. This 10% edge means that we can expect to turn a 10% profit over the long haul when betting this line. Obviously, the concept is a bit abstract and only.
2. Sports Betting Edge Table Calculating The House Edge You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook.

Many discussions have taken place over the years as to why teams perform better at home. Some factors are disputed, but the general consensus is that the home team is aided by both a psychological lift from the home crowd and this crowd making it difficult for the away team, familiarity with the playing grounds, less travel and home comforts (the away team having to stay in a hotel) and even officialdom favoring the home team.

Home Field Advantage in Sport – The Betting Edge. Knowing exactly what edge a home team may have in a particular sport, either in general, or for individual teams, will give you a greater insight into that particular sport, and give you a greater feel than your run of the mill punter.

Whatever the factors are, a home bias is there in every sport, and in the following article I will explain exactly how to work out the size of the edge, both in general terms and for individual teams – with the ability to use these calculations across many sports and leagues.

Home Field Advantage in Sport – General Calculations

There are two ways to define an edge in home field advantage in sport. One is to focus purely on the number of wins a team has, the other is to focus on the number of goals/points/runs a team has scored. Here, I’ll use the 2012/13 English Premier League Table as an example:

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Winning Edge

By doing a few simple calculations we can quantify the effect home advantage had on this season. Under the home section of the table, if we add up the number of wins, draws and losses, we can see that the season looked like this:

Home wins : 166

Draws : 108

Away wins : 106

Obviously, if home advantage wasn’t a factor, the number of home wins and away wins would be similar – however here, you can see that home advantage plays a major part. If we make the assumption that the number of draws is around where it should be (over a 380 game it should be approaching the norm) then we can see, that of the other 272 games, 166 were home wins and 106 were away wins. Without home advantage, you would expect these numbers to be both around 136 (272 / 2).

So what can we take from this? Well we can calculate that a home team in general will have a 22% more chance of winning than expected if there wasn’t home advantage. We work this out using this calculation:

Number of home wins (166) / Expected home wins without home field advantage (136) = 1.22

Similarly, we can do the same calculation for away teams.

Number of away wins (106) / Expected home wins without home field advantage (136) = 0.78

So, the away teams have a 22% less chance of winning than expected.

How To Find An Edge In Sports Betting

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Goals Edge (or points/runs)

There is another way to formulate home advantage looking at the table, and that is by looking at the number of goals scored. In this season there were 592 goals scored at home, and 471 scored away from home (once again an easy calculation by looking at the league table). This equates to 1063 goals over the 380 games in the season.

You can now work out how many goals should be scored per game:

1063 total goals / 380 games = 2.80 goals per game

From this without home advantage, you would expect teams to score 1.40 goals per game each. However, there were 592 home goals in 380 games and 471 away goals, which works out as:

592 (home goals) / 380 games = 1.56 goals per game

471 (away goals) / 380 games = 1.24 goals per game

From these figures you can work out how many more goals than expected a team will score at home/away:

Number of home goals per game (1.56) / Number of expected goals (1.4) = 1.11

Number of away goals per game (1.24) / Number of expected goals (1.4) = 0.89

How To Do Sports Betting

From these figures you can see that a team will generally score 11% more goals at home than expected, and an away team will score 11% less goals away from home than expected.

You’ll be able to figure out both these figures for any sport that features a league table that has home results listed separately (you’ll be able to find these for many sports, and many leagues). Perhaps you may feel that a sample of one season is not enough, so maybe you could crunch the numbers for more than one season – the same rules apply.

Knowing how more often than the norm a team wins at home will be useful for the “match result” bets you’ll place in the future.

Knowing how many more goals/points/runs a team scores at home will be useful for “point spreads”, “correct scores”, and various line bets (including Asian Handicap betting in soccer, puck line in hockey and run line in baseball).

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Individual Teams

However, that is not quite the end of the story. We’ve looked at the figures in general terms, but what about those teams who seem much better than usual at home, and not so good on the road (or vice versa).

Let’s take a look at Everton in the above table. Throughout the whole season they managed sixteen wins, fifteen draws and seven losses. Now we have already worked out that a team has a 22% more chance of winning at home, so of the sixteen games won, we can work out how many of these should have been home wins and away wins. Without home advantage, you would expect 8 home wins and 8 away wins, but adding in the 22% home advantage we see:

How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Online

8 (expected home wins) * 1.22 (home advantage) = 9.76

8 (expected away wins) *0.78 (away disadvantage) = 6.24

Rounding these figures up, we would expect Everton to have 10 wins at home, and just six on the road – however when we look at the table, Everton actually have 12 wins at home and just four on the road. Using these figures, we can work out that Everton in that season were particularly good at home, and particularly poor on the road.

Sports Betting In Ct

Knowing information like this about individual teams can give you a big edge in your gambling, and once again, the same calculations can be done across many sports and many leagues.

Home Field Advantage in Sport – The Betting Edge

Knowing exactly what edge a home team may have in a particular sport, either in general, or for individual teams, will give you a greater insight into that particular sport, and give you a greater feel than your run of the mill punter. With the ability to use the calculations above in many sports and many leagues, you may even get a head start on the bookmaker, especially on some of the lesser known sports and leagues.

How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Line

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